Beyond the Fad: Why Vintage Watches Are Poised to Become a Permanent Part of the Collecting Landscape
Taking a deep dive into the vintage watch paradox by unpacking the enduring allure of timeless timepieces.
If a vintage watch could speak, it might say:
So, I’m back up in the game (Hustling slow)
Running things to keep my swing (All night long)
Letting all the people know
That I’m back to run the show
– The Return of the Mack
When I first really got into watches — many moons ago before the gray hairs sprouted, I was captivated by the vintage watch world. Between roughly 2012-2022 there was a remarkable surge in the vintage watch market in both coverage and price point. However, we have now found ourselves at a turning point for vintage collectors everywhere. As we have left the post pandemic boom in the past, this is a great moment to pause and reflect on what we’ve seen in vintage watches in order to make a prediction about its place in watch collecting moving forward.
Are vintage watches just a fad, a popularity contest of “geezer watches” or have they become a true subset, a burgeoning market that has nowhere to go but up? Talk to any watch enthusiast today about trends, and eventually, they’ll bring up vintage watches. Vintage watches have always had a cult following and a niche in the collecting world, much like vintage cars.
But today, with ‘TikTokers’ and seasoned watch aficionados from 47th Street alike combing online auctions and back alleys of Milan to find the next great vintage piece, we need to ask ourselves as collectors: Is this a trend like chain wallets, Affliction T-shirts, and Heelys, or is this the beginning of a movement?
When trying to answer these questions without succumbing to existential dread from conflicting reports, Instagram reel overload, and the marketing leviathan that controls most of the modern watch landscape, it’s important to define what constitutes a vintage watch.
First, it has to be old. How old? Well, that depends on whom you ask. The standard rule is that a watch must be at least 20-35 years old, which generally places us at the turn of the century. In my opinion, a watch from 1998 is not vintage. However, I am open to being persuaded.
What Can The Auctions Tell Us?
To better understand the vintage market and its trajectory, it’s useful to look back at recent auction results. With the spring auction season well behind us, we can gain insights beyond mere conjecture.
During the Covid collecting bubble, it was clear from the data that “new-age” watch collectors, influenced by social media trends and brand marketing, drove prices to unprecedented heights. But as time passed, those collectors have faded, while the seasoned collectors who built this world for us have remained. During the pandemic boom, steel sports models, especially those with integrated bracelets (looking at you, ref. 5711), garnered all the attention. Now, however, vintage dress watches are having their moment in the sun.
In the latest auction season, Patek Philippe took center stage. A closer look at the numbers reveals a more nuanced story. Setting aside the one-of-a-kind Patek Philippe that sold for $17.2 million at Only Watch (charity sales often inflate prices and distort market trends), Patek Philippe still generated a substantial $34.38 million. Notably, the top-performing Patek Philippe watches were not the sought-after Nautilus and Aquanaut models from the pandemic era but rather classic dress watches.
A 1947 Patek Philippe ref. 1518 perpetual calendar chronograph with a salmon dial sold for $2.7 million—a solid result but not exceptional for that piece. Meanwhile, a Patek Philippe ref. 2499/100 perpetual calendar chronograph, produced between 1978 and 1985, fetched $806,000. This suggests that neo-vintage dress watches are gaining value.
EveryWatch reported that Geneva spring sales saw $60.4 million in watches with leather straps (typically dress watches) versus $9.8 million for watches on bracelets (usually sports watches). This data may indicate a sustained trend toward smaller dress watches or a longer-lasting preference for classically styled, complicated timepieces—i.e., vintage watches. Alternatively, it could mean that novice collectors have exited the market, shifting auction trends back toward classic watches. While this is a bit of a hot take, I stand by it.
And this, my friends, is fantastic news.
What Determines Vintage Watch Value?
Another aspect of understanding the vintage market involves the philosophical idea of value. In the past, jewelers on the famed 47th Street would weigh a watch, especially a precious metal watch, before even considering an offer. “Metal is money,” one dealer told me many moons ago. These jewelers controlled the vintage market because they alone had the product and could create the stories and narratives around these pieces.
Today, watch value depends, to a degree, on the perceived value of a timepiece, specifically its rarity. Few are weighing watches to determine their value anymore. Many vintage pieces aren’t even worth their weight in metal but are prized due to an agreed-upon value and what we now call “collectability.”
The same can generally be said for our monetary system. It is more of a social contract based on agreed value than a tangible one (especially once we left the gold standard and turned our cash into simply “legal tender”). Money is only worth what we agree it to be. It is no longer a finite source. Anyway, I digress.
However, with vintage watches, there seems to be a social contract among collectors that determines what is valuable and what is collectible. This will inherently ebb and flow as collectors’ tastes change, new demographics enter the market, long-forgotten models resurface, and more education about the history and provenance of vintage pieces becomes democratized.
For example, 20 years ago, a Vintage Universal Genève Polerouter in good condition would have been hard to find for more than $2k. Today, that is the baseline for even models in the worst condition. There is more demand, a finite supply, and so costs are skyrocketing.
My take right now is that we are in a very interesting place in the grand horological timeline, which is greatly impacting this perceived boom in the vintage watch market. If I were to put on my sociology cap, I would say there are three factors at play here.
First, education around watches has finally been democratized and is accessible for all collectors. Detailed histories of vintage watches, once confined to dusty library shelves and the minds of a few dedicated scholars, are now available to everyone. We now have Jack and Tim, among many others, who we can all follow as we marvel at our minute repeaters.
This increase in knowledge brings increased awareness and attention, allowing long-forgotten historical timepieces to be resurrected in the minds of collectors everywhere.
Second, as we move further from the Covid boom and the homogenization of popular trends, people are beginning to eschew these trends and seek more obscure pieces. It’s hard to say if the perceived growth in the vintage market is simply people trying to buck popular trends or if it’s something more significant.
Third, vintage is a category that can only grow in terms of numbers. With that said, this seems like a burgeoning category for watch collecting that is only getting started.
Insiders’ Take: Modern Vintage Watch Dealers
To play my own devil’s advocate, vintage watches can be a murky swamp for both unseasoned and even the most seasoned collectors, as Adam Golden of Menta Watches explained to me during a phone call.
“The key is making mistakes,” he said. The former attorney turned vintage watch dealer and consultant has been one of the faces of what he calls the “new watch order.” “You learn when you make mistakes, and that is the only way to truly get into this world.”
“You can’t pull the wool over people’s eyes anymore. Before people like Eric (Wind), Mike (Nouveau), and I, there was a small group of dealers who actually had the information on vintage watches. Not anymore.”
And this is where things get murky in vintage collecting. For so long, watches have had pieces swapped, papers forged, and undocumented variations released, creating challenges in determining not just authenticity but rarity. For many years, this knowledge was held by a few.
However, Golden believes that vintage collectors are those willing to rummage through estate sales to find hidden gems (though he admits the analogy might be a bit odd).
“There are many factors that go into who makes up the vintage buyer. It is rare that someone just wants a flashy vintage watch. They want the idea of something vintage. They are in it because of the concept behind the watch, the soul of the watch,” Golden said. “The buyer of vintage watches is much more educated than the general watch buyer.” If Golden had to guess, he said, “80-90% of vintage buyers are not buying their first watch.”
This is important because buying vintage presents challenges beyond authenticity. Water resistance is essentially non-existent, and movements are much more fragile and require consistent, professional upkeep. This is not like buying a 2024 Seamaster and never needing to worry about it for the next 15 years. It is rare for a vintage watch to be a daily driver, which is why many newer collectors tend to avoid this area.
When asked about the current state of the market, he said, “The vintage market is young compared to the global watch market and small. It probably only makes up 1%, if that, of the global watch market. But I think we are in a solid market that has been around for three decades, and I believe there is much more to come and a lot more room to grow.”
“Look at art or the vintage car world. There are always dips in values. But there will always be a collector, and watches are essentially wearable art. The gap widens as people understand what is truly special and what isn’t.”
When asked what is truly special, Golden listed a handful of examples, focusing primarily on independents. Of all the watches he mentioned, one stood out: “It will always be what is the rarest. Like Journe’s with brass movements.”
This caught my attention, not because the company I write for is a major F.P. Journe advocate, but because I would never consider this a vintage watch. It is older in the grand timeline of François-Paul’s horological achievements, but not vintage by any means. What this take tells me is that we are just beginning in the vintage world, and I can’t wait to see where this goes. I believe the same can be said for small independents like De Bethune and Laurent Ferrier. High horology with limited runs, coveted by those in the know, is a recipe for future vintage success.
It’s like my father handing me his old records or my mom keeping her concert t-shirt collection. What was once trendy, cool, and then forgotten can one day become “vintage” and collectible. Sure, we all have our moments of golden age nostalgia. If you put a tech deck, Tamagotchi, and Furby in front of me, I could smile from here to the Nile River and likely lose my job due to missing every future deadline.
But when vintage becomes cool again, will it receive the cold shoulder? Once grunge became popular, was it ever the same? Once rap became mainstream, it fell apart. Give me the Notorious B.I.G. over anyone named “Lil Durk.”
That said, just remember when it comes to vintage that rare doesn’t equal great.
Looking Back to Look Forward
With many brands reaching into their archives and resurfacing obscure references from what we now call the vintage years, such as the Piaget Polo, the Vacheron Constantin ref. 222, it’s clear there is a demand and that watch companies, along with internet influencers, are intending to capitalize on it.
Just look at TAG Heuer and Hodinkee trying to resurrect the Abercrombie & Fitch Seafarer—a prediction I made not so long ago. And yes, I will give myself a bit of a pat on the back for it, despite having nothing to do with the reissue. I have a few takes on that vintage remake, but the only one I will voice in this forum is that it’s the wrong case size.
This past month alone, Hodinkee, who is “going back to their roots,” released a podcast with James Landin of Analog/Shift—arguably one of the most knowledgeable guys in the vintage world—where they discuss “neo-vintage” Doxas and a Cartier Envelope watch. Then Rich Forden made his return to the platform to talk about vintage Movado chronographs. The tide is turning—pun 100% intended. And at Geneva Watch Days we have industry veteran Patrik Hoffman resurrecting one of Switzerland’s oldest watch companies Favre Leuba and a new company, Albishorn that is creating “vintage inspired watches” that never existed.
And it’s not just in old collectibles where we see these trends and coverage. Brands such as Furlan Marri are releasing vintage-inspired pieces like the Disco Volante; AP has the [Re]master 02; Piaget brought back the Polo; VC resurrected the ref. 222 a few years back; and even Timex has joined the fun with their Noah+ collab and vintage-inspired world timer. We can’t forget the resurrection of vintage brands, from Universal Genève being bought by Breitling this past year to the success of Vulcain and Nivada Grenchen under the vintage wonderkid Guillaume Laidet.
If I were to make a recommendation—though it’s not my idea, but feel free to steal it—bring back Gallet chronographs and Cortebert. There is a treasure trove of ideas, movements, and, above all, fun and quirky designs with stories that captivate collectors. I say this with a caveat because I am the first person to get annoyed by sequels, prequels, or attempts to capitalize on being unoriginal.
That said, a great story is a great story, and great design is great design. The Patek Philippe Calatrava ref. 96 will always be perfect, whether now or in 100 years. The Speedmaster is nearly perfect. The Jaeger-LeCoultre Reverso, the Cartier Tank, the Blancpain Fifty-Fathoms, and the Breitling Navitimer—they are all classics. You can create as many modern renditions of these as you want; the vintage market will always be there because you can’t perfect perfection.
However, if I had to start my own trends, there are a few models that I would scoop up the minute I see them. These are the lost boys of Peter Pan: Audemars Piguet 70s models, specifically their Decagon with its stepped bezel ref. 4134, the White Gold Audemars Piguet Digital, or the even rarer AP ref. 4010 Pre-Royal Oak with a tropical dial. I also believe that early Nomos and A. Lange & Söhne, although not currently fitting my definition of vintage, will become great finds as people recognize the low early production numbers and the incredible horology coming out of Glashütte during the revitalized early 90s.
When it comes to vintage, we see a strong and steady trend in the auctions, despite the fall-off from the unprecedented 2020-2022 run, an increase in scholarship, and a constant influx of new watches that will, in time, fall into this category. It’s no longer a fad or trend.
To me, the growth of the vintage market is a sign of health. When all reports point toward downward-trending markets, I see the vintage market as the old-time backup quarterback with a one-bar face mask, still ripping cigarettes at halftime. He’s called in to take the team through the playoffs and does so with the utmost panache and coolness, making all the young guns jealous. There will always be an old-timer to show the young guys how to do it and do it cooler than anyone else.
That’s vintage. It’s not a fad; it’s a movement. It’s a vibe unto itself. And I am here for it.